Co-authored with (H.Alarian & J.Fahey)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a tectonic shift in German politics, leading to easing of immigration and tightening of relations with Russia. Although these policy changes are historic, questions remain as to how reactive the German public was in the same policy domains. Did German citizens also support dismantling barriers to immigration and punishing pro-Russian parties (AfD, Die Linke) or is the Zeitenwende constrained to elite rhetoric and policymaking? Using multiple waves of the 2022 German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) Panel, we find the mainstream-voting public becomes more likely to endorse liberal immigration policies after Russia’s invasion. The premier anti-immigrant and pro-Russia party, however, is not punished. Instead, citizens become more favorable toward and more likely to vote for the AfD in the months after the invasion. The Zeitenwende consequently reflects a new era in German public opinion: whereby the AfD continues to expand its base despite warming immigration attitudes.

Despite the rising numbers of migrants acquiring citizenship and becoming eligible voters, immigrant citizens and their descendants report lower rates of voter turnout than their native counterparts. I address this phenomenon by examining the institutional link between citizenship regimes and political participation by arguing that negative acquirement experiences within restrictive citizenship regimes create an early deterrence to voting among foreign-origin immigrants. I use data from the European Social Survey and the Migration Integration Policy Index to conduct a cross sectional survey analysis on 20 European Union countries, to include a variety of citizenship policy regimes. I find confirming evidence that countries with higher MIPEX scores, indicating more inclusive citizenship regimes, are correlate to a higher likelihood of voter turnout among second-generation immigrant voters than first-generation voters. The positive correlation between citizenship regime and second-generation voters, suggests that there is an institutional impact on integration that goes beyond citizenship acquisition.